EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (November 30, 2025)

In the alt-finance podcasting space, the RealJohnGaltFLA (johngaltfla.com) recently did this interview that also did a good job of covering the Japan carry trade:

Note that the episode was done near the end of the week before Thanksgiving and “Galt” noted that the couple of days before Thanksgiving could be worrisome because many Wall Streeters may have already left work for the holiday plus many traders will take off for Hanukah (while others will be gone for Christmas-New Years). Its during these “quiet” periods something big could blow-up plus the coming first two weeks of December (as people are back from Thanksgiving) should also be a concern.

Meanwhile, former Blackrock money manager Ed Dowd (Phinance Technologies) was on RealJohnGaltFLA’s podcast saying that the credit people are starting to sharpen their pencils (and “that’s how it begins…”) plus all the recent “AI deal” announcements are “ending moves” (along with Sam Altman asking for a bailout…) that further signal the end is near for the AI bubble:

Dowd recalled how in 2008, they were all in the darling stocks that were momentum plays (which they knew to be). They were 800 basis points ahead of the benchmark until the day everything broke and they immediately found themselves down 250 basis points. They “turned tail that day” and got out of those darling stocks – something he says momentum players are already starting to do with AI stocks. However, Dowd thinks Trump can still goose the AI bubble one more time with any announcement about the government taking a big equity stake in them.

Nevertheless, Dowd concedes AI is real (like railroads and the Internet which initially got overbuilt) but the insiders still need to pump and dump their current AI holdings, etc. before it crashes. From what he understands, DeepSeek does AI at a lower compute costs – meaning the current US model for AI (build, build, build, etc.) is garbage.

Dowd also made the prediction that AI will ultimately improve over time and out of the AI bubble rubble, some gems will appear (as with the end of the dot.com bubble). This will include niche AI companies that will cover specific verticals or silos of knowledge where they bring down the AI hallucination rate.

However, I think we are already there as I recently came upon this AI service covering a couple of verticals trained on specific silos of resources:

It appears that you get a couple of free searches before having to give an email address (but I guess it remains free after that and therefore no different than DeepSeek etc.).

I asked it the following question:

What health problems can turmeric be used to treat?

I got a reasonable answer that mentioned using turmeric to make Golden Milk and to treat digestive disorders (I already drink turmeric to help get rid of throat ailments/sore throats and mild diarrhea), but no mention of using it to treat minor skin infections/problems (e.g. boils, etc.). There were links to sources that could be further double checked using Google; but Google AI also gave me a reasonably compressive answer to the same question (with different source links).

Later in the podcast, Dowd mentioned that he’s been talking to family offices who are starting to wake up and seek liquidity/cash by exiting what they can. He was also told that family offices in Europe are preparing for war (as Europe needs to paper over all their pension and other problems…) with US-based family offices, upon hearing that, being like, “What are you talking about…?”

Meanwhile, Dowd says China will need to depreciate the Yuan (potentially by as much as 10% a year) with the Chinese soon being on the hunt (for years to come…) for hard assets abroad to compensate for this. China has also hit a demographic wall (in 2020 and its accelerating into 2032 with internal consumption plummeting) and has entered the acute phase of their real estate crisis which will accelerate in 2026.

Finally, Dowd says he can’t predict when the Bank of Japan and the Japanese carry trade finally rolls over; but its a potential black swan looming on the horizon. He also would not be surprised if unseen forces keep everything going up to just before the US mid-term elections…

As of the end of November, more October/Q3 fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) along with new research has become available starting with a non-EM piece that acknowledges what Dowd talked about:

🔬🌐 CIO Views | Canaries in a Coal Mine? Assessing Recent Cracks in the Credit Market (Rockefeller Global Family Office) – In the latest CIO Monthly Perspective, Canaries in a Coal Mine?, Rockefeller Global Family Office Chief Investment Officer Jimmy Chang recounts the subprime mortgage crisis of the 2000s and how that led to regulatory changes which fueled the growth of the shadow banking system. Jimmy analyzes the parallels between the Great Financial Crisis and recent credit issues to deliberate whether these new headlines are idiosyncratic or potentially systemic issues. Access the full and condensed version of the CIO Monthly by clicking on the buttons below:

New Asia Fund Documents & Research

🗄️🎙️🌏 abrdn AEF Fund Update, featuring Portfolio Manager Nick Robinson. (Aberdeen Closed-End Funds) 13:05 Minutes – Nick Robinson, Portfolio Manager, joins Mike Taggart to discuss the significant activity in emerging markets outside of China this year.
🔬🌏Fidelity Asian Values: successful Asian small cap specialist (Fidelity)
- Long-term investors who don’t mind a little extra risk might be able to improve their portfolio’s performance by including a modest allocation to areas that others often overlook. A good example are the small cap stocks in Asia, which are about as far off the beaten track as it is possible to go.
- When considering this type of asset class, it makes sense to pick a fund with a proven history of beating its benchmark. One such is Fidelity Asian Values Plc (LON: FAS), an investment trust that has recently announced another year of outperformance to add to its strong long-term track record.
🗄️🌏 Fidelity Asian Values Plc (LON: FAS)’s October monthly factsheet (short economic and portfolio review) noted the fund has a significant percentage of the portfolio in Hong Kong which helped relative returns along with stock picks in materials and consumer discretionary while overweight exposure to Indonesia detracted as small caps saw a sharp fall in share prices.

New Asia Fund Documents & Research

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