EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries (January 18, 2026)

This recent thread from a Substack piece about Salesforce’s apparent AI troubles it worth noting:

"Recently, senior executives at Salesforce have admitted, both internally and publicly, that they massively overestimated AI’s capabilities. They have found that AI simply can’t cope with the complex nature of customer service and totally fails at nuanced issues, escalations, and
— LeftHandedOctopus (@AggieCapitalist) January 16, 2026

long-tail customer problems. They even say that it has caused a marked decline in service quality and far more complaints.

But the problems go far deeper than that.

Both employees and executives have said that the company is wasting countless resources on firefighting to
— LeftHandedOctopus (@AggieCapitalist) January 16, 2026

stabilise operations since the mass AI layoff. Employees have to spend so much time stepping in to correct the wildly wrong AI-generated responses that AI is wasting more time than it saves. In other words, this AI reduces productivity, not increases it.
— LeftHandedOctopus (@AggieCapitalist) January 16, 2026

But there is also a huge problem here with expertise and skill debt. On top of the firefighting to correct the AI, executives have also highlighted how they are also having to firefight to stabilise their systems from problems that were previously easily solved by staff who had
— LeftHandedOctopus (@AggieCapitalist) January 16, 2026

the required experience and skill. However, these staff were fired in the AI layoffs."https://t.co/I5WFYew8gV
— LeftHandedOctopus (@AggieCapitalist) January 16, 2026

And the reply that sums AI up:

Everyone that uses AI on a daily basis knows this. It’s all a huge bubble
— Guilherme Lage (@ItsEasypop) January 18, 2026

However, this is also a good point:

This is the AI bubble’s end game:

“when AI has infiltrated work processes to the point that exit costs are prohibitive, the customer base will be unable to escape and coerced into paying up. The world will be hooked on AI, and the tech firms will collect handsome profits.” https://t.co/5RjIEHUEkk
— Jathan Sadowski (@jathansadowski) January 16, 2026

The piece New Left Review was referring too:

📰 After AI (Sidecar) January 2026

The stock market valuation of AI-related firms has increased tenfold over the past decade. As John Lanchester noted recently, all but one of the world’s ten largest companies are connected to the future value of artificial intelligence. All but one of those are American, and together their value is equal to well over half of the US economy. Over the past few years, anticipation of the AI ‘revolution’ has driven a surge in investment in these US tech companies. Promises of a radical breakthrough in post-human intelligence and miraculous productivity gains have captured the animal spirits of investors to the point where, as the FT’s Ruchir Sharma put it, ‘America is now one big bet on AI’. Fixed investment in the sector is so enormous that it was the primary driver of US growth in 2025. The training and operation of AI models requires a huge physical build-up of data centres, computing equipment, cooling systems, network hardware, grid connections and power provision. Tech firms are expected to spend a staggering $5 trillion on this costly infrastructure – which is still mostly concentrated in the US – to meet expected demand between now and 2030.

The problem is that the numbers do not add up. To meet its colossal financial needs the sector has shifted from a model dominated by cash-flow and equity financing to debt financing……………..

As mentioned in the past, I have been using open source / free Chinese AI providers like DeepSeek as they are good enough for extracting and/or summarizing info/data from short pieces (like fund updates). However, there are inconsistencies in output format from day to day or week to week and occasional hallucinations. And if the piece contains too much negative talk about China (or mentions Jack Ma…), DeepSeek returns this message:

Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else.

Meaning I need to delete those portions and try asking DeepSeek again…

As of mid-January, more December/Q4 fund updates have become available (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here) plus new research starting with some non-EM pieces still pushing Europe or AI:

🎙️🌍 Europe with Nael Khatoun, Madelaine Jones, and Suzana Perić (Oaktree) 23:20 Minutes – Get the latest on the European economic backdrop and the state of its private and liquid credit markets with Nael Khatoun (Portfolio Manager, European Private Debt), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European High Yield Bonds and Senior Loans), and Suzana Perić (Co-Head of Sourcing & Origination).https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/5D0gIZlyBFs7GDamnM7Qz2
🎥📝🌐 Smarter models, sharper founders: growth investing in the AI era (Baillie Gifford) 38:19 Minutes – Key points
- The Long Term Global Growth Team looks beyond the hype to find companies with the ambition, vision and culture to become AI outliers
- Roblox Corp (NYSE: RBLX) and Applovin Corp (NASDAQ: APP) are using the technology to create transformational products and become more efficient
- Promising future applications include robotics, which could spur further demand for NVIDIA’s chips

New Asia Fund Documents & Research

⏰🎬🌏 Invitation – Asia Frontier Capital – Quarterly Webinar on Thursday, 22^nd January 2026 [INVITATION LINK NOT WORKING] (Asia Frontier Capital) – The webinar will highlight the following key points:
- Drivers of performance for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund Strategy in 2025
- AFC Asia Frontier Strategy Outlook for 2026
- Key country picks for the AFC Asia Frontier Strategy for 2026
- 2026 Outlook for the AFC Iraq Fund Strategy, AFC Uzbekistan Fund Strategy, AFC Vietnam Fund Strategy
- Key Concerns and Risks
The webinar will be held on Thursday, 22^nd January 2026 at 8:00 am NY, 1:00 pm UK, 2:00 pm Swiss and 9:00 pm HK/SG time and will be recorded for viewing at your convenience. The webinar will run for 75 minutes, including a 30-minute Q&A session following the fund managers’ presentations.
⏰🎬🇨🇳 China Q4 Update & 2026 Outlook: Five-Year Plan, Pro-Profit Policy, New Listings (KraneShares) – Wednesday, January 21, 2026, 10:00 am – 11:00 am EST
- China’s equity market closed 2025 among the world’s strongest performers,¹ led by accelerating momentum in internet platforms, artificial intelligence (AI), and e-commerce—the core engines of KWEB’s investment universe. Many of China’s leading technology and AI companies continue to trade at lower earnings multiples compared to U.S. peers,² even as profit margins stabilize and earnings momentum improves, which could create a compelling setup as investors look ahead to 2026.
- Confidence is also returning to China’s capital markets. A wave of high-profile Hong Kong IPO filings—including Baidu’s Kunlun chip unit, Biren Technology, Minimax, and Zhipu— highlights the depth of China’s AI and semiconductor pipeline and could help re-ignite investor enthusiasm. At the policy level, statements from the draft of the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan reinforce China’s commitment to technological leadership, corporate discipline, and domestic consumption. At the same time, easing U.S.–China tensions could reduce headline risk and help support renewed global investor engagement in 2026.
- Join KraneShares CIO Brendan Ahern and Head of International Dr. Xiaolin Chen for a focused discussion on where they see the most compelling opportunities—and key risks—across China’s internet and innovation sectors.
- In this webinar, we will cover:
  - What recent earnings signal for China’s internet and AI leaders
  - How policy and capital-markets activity may shape returns
  - Where valuations look most attractive for 2026
  - Live Q&A with KraneShares’ investment team

New Asia Fund Documents & Research

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