China & Hong Kong Stock Picks (November-December 2025)

Before we get to some Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, this was an interesting piece from James Rickards:

💻 Don’t Fall in the China Trap (Daily Reckoning) November 2026

Is the Chinese economy collapsing? Or is something worse waiting in the wings? The short answer is that we could be looking at something much worse than a crashing economy. China could be part of a collapse of the global monetary system.

We’ll begin the analysis with the latest official economic releases from China. These releases showed some of the weakest performance by the Chinese economy since the 2020 pandemic collapse.

That piece concluded by saying:

Investors: Stay Away from China

On top of this economic catastrophe comes political turmoil. The best information available is that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been subject to a soft military coup in which he is now subordinate to the PLA leadership. Xi’s allies have been mostly purged. What comes next in terms of Chinese leadership is unclear. But uncertainty that will deter foreign capital from investing in China is almost certain.

And China is not alone. The weakness in the Chinese economy today comes in the context of negative growth in Japan and the UK along with barely positive growth in the EU. Unemployment is rising, world trade is shrinking, and commercial bank lenders are tightening lending standards among surprise credit losses.

Don’t believe the Wall Street narratives about how China is winning the AI race and is building a technological juggernaut. It’s not. China is stuck in the middle-income trap and has a unique combination of a crashing economy, trade wars, collapsing demographics, excessive debt, political turmoil, no rule of law and the flight of foreign capital all amid a world of no growth. Investors should keep as far away from China as possible.

In addition, I tend to agree with this recent tweet by Desmond Shum, the author of Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China and who’s billionaire (now ex-) wife Whitney Duan (Duan Weihong) “disappeared” for several years in a corruption crackdown:

U.S. Up, China Strained, Europe Stuck

Had dinner with a dear friend in banking last night — walked away with a plausible macro outline for the next three years. Here’s my takeaway.
⸻

United States — clear upswing

Tech leadership remains entrenched, re-industrialization is…
— Desmond Shum (@DesmondShum) November 16, 2025

His China take:

China — manufacturing giant, brittle core

China remains a manufacturing colossus. Exports are now essentially its only meaningful growth engine. Beijing still holds genuine chokehold cards — rare metals, pharma inputs, battery materials — giving it leverage in the systemic contest with the U.S.

But beneath that external strength lies a toxic domestic mix not seen since 1989:
• Deflationary economy
• Rising unemployment
• Intensifying sociopolitical control
• And increasingly volatile elite politics as Xi enters a fourth term at 75, with succession murmur growing louder.

It’s a powerful manufacturing machine sitting on top of a brittle socioeconomic structure. A combustible combination — and not an environment foreign capital is eager to underwrite.

Shum is also pretty down on Europe:

“In the future, Europe will have pockets of wealth. The rest will be wasteland.”

This well respected banker friend of mine — an European who loves his continent and wants only the best for it — said this last week and it stayed with me:

It’s a brutally vivid image. pic.twitter.com/fthOIqQaO9
— Desmond Shum (@DesmondShum) November 20, 2025

Shum has also given a lengthy reality check on China’s automation drive (which makes no sense to me as what do you do with tens of millions of unemployed people? They can’t all be delivery riders…):

The 320 Million Jobs Question: China’s Job Market Meets the Machines

I’ve said for years that China’s growth model is exhausted. Beijing has been searching for replacement drivers, and it now seems convinced that one of them will be robotics—for efficiency gains, to offset a…
— Desmond Shum (@DesmondShum) November 13, 2025

This other tweet from Shum is worth noting as it also covers the huge differences in thinking between Singaporeans and PRC Chinese (the context being “international standards” for a luxury hotel design pushed by the Singaporeans versus “Chinese standards” or rather “Chinese/Beijing realities…”):

… I was there from the design stage, arguing endlessly with the management about what a luxury hotel of this sort in China needed to be. As a potential investor, I pushed for decisions grounded in Chinese business culture, while the Singaporean team pushed back with their “international standards.” In the end, I walked away. Time proved that was the right decision — but it didn’t stop the place from becoming part of my life.

The hotel itself felt like a preserved pocket of the Qing dynasty. Century-old pavilions, stone pathways, carved lattice windows catching afternoon light. It didn’t feel built; it felt remembered.

And then there was its odd neighbor — the CCP Central Party School, only two blocks away. I argued for banquet rooms with private car entrances, hidden corridors, rooms where powerful men and their entourages could wine and dine unseen. The management insisted on an open dining hall — beautifully designed, but utterly impractical for Beijing’s reality. They definitely forfeited millions in revenue every year from guests who needed discretion more than ambience. A lesson from a different era, ignored in its own time…

Here’s the whole tweet:

Echoes from the Summer Palace

Aman Summer Palace is closing its doors.https://t.co/AuKhXUZ0oQ

And with that, a certain strand of my life — one woven through courtyards, quiet ponds, and old Beijing evenings — gently unravels.

It was the first Aman in China. I was there from… pic.twitter.com/CrGzi9ViQC
— Desmond Shum (@DesmondShum) December 8, 2025

Finally, this shorter tweet from another Twitter user also gives a good China reality check:

I see a lot of people joking about the collapsed bridge in Sichuan. I get it, that’s social media.

But the collapsed bridge represents the all pervasive uncertainty and lack of safety that I know many people in the PRC experience daily. Baby formula, restaurant oil,…
— Kevin Carrico (@kevincarrico) November 12, 2025

And:

And if anything happens to you, there is no path to righting that wrong. Look at Zhao Lianhai or the parents of children whose schools collapsed in the Wenchuan earthquake. The system cracks down on those who raise their voices rather than those who endanger and terrorize their fellow citizens.

Once again, none of the above is to say there are NO opportunities to be found among Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, but one must maintain a realistic viewpoint about China and understand the investment opportunities along with potential risks…

Stocks covered by a couple of equity research providers in this post:

[Note: On desktop browsers, an autogenerated table of contents will appear on the left side linked to each stock. I will add those links below after publishing/emailing this post…]

🇨🇳 China – December – JF SmartInvest Holdings Ltd, Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd, J&T Global Express, CGN Mining Co Ltd, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Baozun, Weichai Power, Sany Heavy Industry & Meituan

🇨🇳 China – November – Zixin Group Holdings Ltd, Tongcheng Travel Holdings, Li Auto, Alibaba, NIO Inc, Yum China, China Sunsine Chemical Holdings, NetEase, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, ZTO Express, Futu Holdings, Kuaishou Technology, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings, iQIYI, Xiaomi, Baidu, PDD Holdings, Trip.com, Kanzhun Ltd, Luckin Coffee, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co Ltd, XPeng, Geely Automobile Holdings, Tencent, Bilibili, Sun Art Retail Group Ltd, Tencent Music Entertainment Group, Hesai Group, China Hongqiao Group, Ke Holdings, BeOne Medicines, Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Pacific Insurance, Luxshare Precision Industry, PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd, BaTeLab Co Ltd, Haier Smart Home, BYD Electronic International Co Ltd, PetroChina, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China & China Life Insurance

Hong Kong stocks:

🇭🇰 Hong Kong – DFI Retail Group Holdings, Luk Fook Holdings (International) Ltd, Far East Consortium International Ltd, CSI Properties Ltd, Vitasoy International Holdings, Tai Cheung Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd, Link REIT, HKR International Ltd, Samsonite International SA, Galaxy Entertainment, Cathay Pacific Airways & Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing

CMB International Capital Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank (SHA: 600036 / HKG: 3968 / OTCMKTS: CIHKY / OTCMKTS: CIHHF), has a monthly list of 20+ high conviction stock ideas – namely Chinese stock picks (see our 2023 – May, June, July, August, September, October, November & December; 2024 – January-February, March, April, May, June, July-August, September, October, November & December; 2025 – January, February, March, April, May, June, July-August, September & October posts summarizing those) BUT these lists do not change too much from month to month. Stocks covered by the CMBI November list (including Additions and Deletions) and included in this post with updated stats and charts include:

Geely Automobile Holdings, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co Ltd, J&T Global Express, Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings, Green Tea Group, Bosideng International Holdings, Guoquan Food Shanghai Co Ltd, Luckin Coffee, Proya Cosmetics, CR Beverage, 3SBio, China Life Insurance, Ping An Insurance, PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd, Futu Holdings, Tencent, Alibaba, Trip.com, Greentown Service Group, Luxshare Precision Industry, Aac Technologies Holdings, BYD Electronic International Co Ltd, Horizon Robotics, OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (Will Semiconductor Co Ltd), Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd, Shengyi Technology, BaTeLab Co Ltd, Naura Technology & Salesforce

And as always, this post is provided for informational purposes only (and to make your life easier…). It does not constitute investment advice and/or a recommendation…

🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Podcast; 🎬 Webinar; 📰 Newspaper/magazine article; 📯 Press release; 💻 Substack/blog/website article; ✅ Our own posts; 🗃️ Archived article; ⏰ Upcoming webinar or event; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🏷️ Tagged links to other posts about the stock.

China, Hong Kong & Macau Stock Index

Frontier & Emerging Market Stock Index

🇨🇳 China – December

JF SmartInvest Holdings Ltd

🔬 JF SmartInvest (9636 HK) – Seizing opportunities amid a traffic paradigm shift (CMB International) 12-19 2025 ⚠️

🇨🇳 JF SmartInvest Holdings Ltd (HKG: 9636) 🇰🇾 – Online investment decision-making solution services. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 8.71
Forward P/E: 16.69 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 1.68% (Yahoo! Finance)

Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd

🔬 Innolight (300308 CH) – A clear beneficiary of global AI infrastructure capex; remains our top pick in 2026 (CMB International) 12-15 2025 ⚠️

🔬 Innolight (300308 CH) – Record-high quarter driven by AI demand; Robust cloud capex underpins outlook (CMB International) 11-03 2025 ⚠️

🇨🇳👼🏻 Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (SHE: 300308) 🇨🇳 – CNC equipment for motor winding manufacturing. 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 25.68
Forward P/E: 24.15 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 0.15% (Yahoo! Finance)

J&T Global Express

🔬 J&T Express (1519 HK) – Takeaways from Bangkok investor call (CMB International) 12-12 2025 ⚠️

🌐 J&T Global Express Ltd (HKG: 1519 / SWB: J92) 🇰🇾 – Global logistics service provider. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 4.05
Forward P/E: 18.45 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: N/A (Yahoo! Finance)

CGN Mining Co Ltd

🔬 CGN Mining (1164 HK) – Newly proposed policy in Kazakhstan: little impact on asset rights but risk to valuation (CMB International) 12-09 2025 ⚠️

🌐 CGN Mining Co Ltd (HKG: 1164 / FRA: VBO / OTCMKTS: CGNMF) 🇰🇾 – Development & trading of natural uranium resources for use by nuclear enterprises. 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 6.11
Forward P/E: 0.27 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 0.31% (Yahoo! Finance)

Zoomlion Heavy Industry

🔬 Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) – Expect accelerated sales growth in Nov (CMB International) 12-05 2025 ⚠️

🔬 Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) – Full range of products to expand globally (CMB International) 12-01 2025 ⚠️

🌐 Zoomlion Heavy Industry (SHE: 000157 / HKG: 1157 / FRA: 8CZ / OTCMKTS: ZLIOY / ZLIOF) 🇨🇳 – Construction machinery enterprise. Developing & manufacturing major high-tech equipment (agricultural, building, energy, environmental & transport engineering). 🇼 🏷️
Price/Book (Current): 1.02
Forward P/E: 12.12 / Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 7.14% (Yahoo! Finance)