Politics, protectionism and persistent structural problems cloud rosy outlook. The commodities supercycle is a distant memory and EMs have found no new growth engine to take its place. US interest rates are rising as quantitative easing gives way to quantitative tightening. The Trump administration is preparing a multi-pronged assault on the international trading system in which the biggest losers would be EM exporters. All of which leaves the rise of EMs looking distinctly cyclical rather than structural. The only question is how long it will last. READ MORE
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