Emerging Markets Debt Outlook: A Glass Half Full or Half Empty? (Wellington Management)

  • This is an excerpt from our 2023 Investment Outlook, in which specialists from across our investment platform share insights on the economic and market forces that we expect to influence portfolios in the year to come. This is a chapter in the Bond Market Outlook section.
  • Most EM central banks were well ahead of their DM peers, having collectively raised interest rates significantly as of this writing, thereby helping to lift EM local-market yields to attractive levels.
  • Over the longer term, we anticipate that proactive actions by many EM central banks and a wider US external trade deficit (the EM trade balance has rapidly shifted to deficit over the past 12 months) likely will help bolster EM currencies.
  • Lastly, technicals in EM local markets indicate that they are generally under-owned by foreign investors, suggesting less demand amid more muted supply. READ MORE

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