China’s Economy Will Not Overtake the US Until 2060, If Ever (Financial Times)

• The consensus that Beijing can achieve whatever target it sets ignores the pace of slowdown in recent years 
• Before the 2008 crisis, China’s debts held steady at about 150 per cent of GDP; afterwards it began pumping out credit to boost growth, and debts spiked to 220 per cent of GDP by 2015. Debt binges normally lead to a sharp slowdown, and China’s economy did decelerate in the 2010s, but only from 10 per cent to 6 per cent — less dramatically than past patterns would predict.China avoided a deeper slowdown thanks to a tech sector boom and, more importantly, by issuing more debt. Total debt is up to 275 per cent of GDP, and much of it funded investment in the property bubble, where all too much of it went to waste. READ MORE

Similar Posts:

• Evergrande and China: A Lehman Moment—or Less “Grande” Than That? (Franklin Templeton)
• China’s Economy Is Headed For One Of The Largest Meltdowns Ever (19FortyFive)
• China’s Economy Is Headed For One Of The Largest Meltdowns Ever (19FortyFive)
• China is a Minefield for International Creditors (Washington Examiner)
• Chinese Stocks: Cheap Long-term Play or Value Trap? (FE Trustnet)
• Understanding China’s Economic and Market Developments: Managing China’s Transition into Global Benchmarks (FTSE Russell)
• The Long View: China is Too Big to Fail (Fidante Partners)
• How China’s Middle Classes Move Their Money Abroad (SCMP)
• China Will Not Be Able To Offset Its Property Bubble Easily (Daniel Lacalle)
• China Faces Pushback on Belt and Road Indebtedness (The Asset)
• Chart: Chinese Margin Debt vs Other Stock Market Crashes (Guggenheim)
• China’s Renminbi is Rapidly Displacing the US Dollar as a Trading Currency (FT)
• LEFT TO ROT: Inside China’s Apocalyptic ‘Ghost Cities’ Where 65Million Homes Lay Deserted as Communist Party Faces Economic Chaos (The Sun)
• Evergrande on Brink of Collapse: 4 Things to Know (Nikkei Asia)
• Emerging Market Monitor: Hit by the Trump Trade (Pictet Asset Management)