Economic Prospects in Several Emerging Asia Countries (Wells Fargo Securities)
In the first of a series of individual regional reports, Wells Fargo drilled down into seven countries in emerging Asia to examine economic opportunities and risks in those specific economies. Highlights for each country included:
- China: Further Slowing Ahead
China’s elevated national savings rate has been the wellspring of the country’s robust economic growth, but the Chinese economy likely will grow slower in coming years than it has over the past few decades.
- India: Will the Country Fulfill Its Potential?
The working age population in India is growing at a strong rate, but a number of challenges could prevent India from reaching its true economic potential.
- Indonesia: Some Imbalances Remain
Indonesia has enacted some meaningful reforms in recent years, but is not without its economic problems.
- Thailand: Road to Recovery Looks Rocky
Thailand’s economic performance has recently lagged behind that of its neighbors in SE Asia.
- Philippines: From Laggard to Leader?
The Philippines has enjoyed rapid economic growth in the past few years, but the investment rate will need to rise further to achieve rapid economic growth on a sustained basis.
- Vietnam: Living in the Shadow of an Investment Slowdown
Growth in Vietnam has slowed in the wake of a burst credit bubble.
- Mongolia: Robust Growth Recently but Fortunes Tied to China
Investment in copper mining has driven economic growth in Mongolia recently, but the country remains dependent on economic growth in China.
The report concluded:
Emerging Asia will likely continue to post faster economic growth rates than most other regions in the developing world for the foreseeable future. However, the region will likely not be able to achieve the same robust rates of economic growth as it did in the last two decades. The working age population in China is cresting, and the country has arguably over invested in the last decade. Mongolia, Thailand and Vietnam also will likely post slower rates of real GDP growth in coming years than they did during the last decade. Favorable demographics mean that Indonesia, the Philippines and India could all experience some economic acceleration in the next decade or two. However, in our view, a number of reforms will need to be undertaken in these economies for them to realize their true economic potential.
To read the whole report, Economic Prospects in Emerging Asia, go to the website of Wells Fargo. In addition, check out our ADR lists, closed-end fund lists and ETF lists for many of the countries or regions in the report.
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- Mongolia Flounders After Becoming “Minegolia” (WSJ)
- Are There Greater Opportunities In Asia’s Frontier Markets Than in China? (FT)
- The “Next Eleven” and the World Economy (The Asset)
- Asia at a Crossroads: Demographics, Economics & Investment (State Street)
- “Fragile Five” Emerging Markets No Longer That “Fragile” (AP)