QUARTZ has a good article that seems to suggest that savvy Thailand investors should sell on protests and buy on coups with Mark Mobius from the Templeton Emerging Markets Group being quoted as saying:
“We view the current military coup as likely overall positive as it creates a more stable environment. The prognosis for Thailand is good.”
However, other analysts remain doubtful that the coup or military rule will resolve anything for the long term as the problem is that Thaksin and his proxies keep winning elections when there is democracy.
I should mention that after my last trip to Thailand, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha (The Shutdown Bangkok Protests: Is Thailand A Safer Investment Than You Think?) with some of my pictures of the Shutdown Bangkok protests (the full album can be viewed here plus I have uploaded some videos to a YouTube playlist posted here) where I also pointed out that the country has had fewer military coups or coup attempts in recent decades:
Military Coup or Coup Attempts in Thailand
| Coup | Details |
|---|---|
| Coup (attempt) of 1912 | Some details are available here. |
| Coup (attempt) of 1917 | Aborted: Few details seem to exist. |
| Coup of 1932 | Friday, 24 June 1932 |
| Coup of 1933 | Tuesday, 20 June 1933 |
| Coup of 1939 | Some details are here. |
| Coup of 1947 | Saturday, 8 November 1947 |
| Coup (attempt) of 1948 | Some details are available here. |
| Coup (attempt) of 1949 | Saturday, 26 February 1949 |
| Coup (attempt) of 1951 (Manhattan) | Friday, 29 June 1951 |
| Coup of 1951 | Thursday, 29 November 1951 |
| Coup of 1957 | Tuesday, 17 September 1957 |
| Coup of 1958 | Monday, 20 October 1958 |
| Coup of 1971 | Wednesday, 17 November 1971 |
| Coup of 1976 | Wednesday, 6 October 1976 |
| Coup (attempt) of 1977 | Saturday, 26 March 1977 |
| Coup of 1977 | Thursday, 20 October 1977 |
| Coup (attempt) of 1981 (“Young Turks”) | Wednesday, 1 April 1981 |
| Coup (attempt) of 1985 | Monday, 9 September 1985 |
| Coup of 1991 | Saturday, 23 February 1991 |
| Coup of 2006 | Tuesday, 19 September 2006 |
Source: Counting Thailand’s coups
I also pointed out that the real problem is that many Thais have discovered the Achilles heel of all democracies (“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic“) because poor rural and Northern Thais have found that voting for Thaksin (and his proxies) is the equivalent of voting themselves money in the form of rice subsidies and other handouts – just like in the West.
To read the whole article, Thai investors have learned to sell on the protests, buy on the coup, go to the website of QUARTZ.
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- Pictures of the “Shutdown Bangkok, Restart Thailand” Protests
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