When Investing in Thailand, Sell on Protests and Buy on Coups (Quartz)

Posted May 23, 2014 5:36 pm by with 0 comments

QUARTZ has a good article that seems to suggest that savvy Thailand investors should sell on protests and buy on coups with Mark Mobius from the Templeton Emerging Markets Group being quoted as saying:

“We view the current military coup as likely overall positive as it creates a more stable environment. The prognosis for Thailand is good.”

However, other analysts remain doubtful that the coup or military rule will resolve anything for the long term as the problem is that Thaksin and his proxies keep winning elections when there is democracy.

I should mention that after my last trip to Thailand, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha (The Shutdown Bangkok Protests: Is Thailand A Safer Investment Than You Think?) with some of my pictures of the Shutdown Bangkok protests (the full album can be viewed here plus I have uploaded some videos to a YouTube playlist posted here) where I also pointed out that the country has had fewer military coups or coup attempts in recent decades:

Military Coup or Coup Attempts in Thailand

Coup Details
Coup (attempt) of 1912 Some details are available here.
Coup (attempt) of 1917 Aborted: Few details seem to exist.
Coup of 1932 Friday, 24 June 1932
Coup of 1933 Tuesday, 20 June 1933
Coup of 1939 Some details are here.
Coup of 1947 Saturday, 8 November 1947
Coup (attempt) of 1948 Some details are available here.
Coup (attempt) of 1949 Saturday, 26 February 1949
Coup (attempt) of 1951 (Manhattan) Friday, 29 June 1951
Coup of 1951 Thursday, 29 November 1951
Coup of 1957 Tuesday, 17 September 1957
Coup of 1958 Monday, 20 October 1958
Coup of 1971 Wednesday, 17 November 1971
Coup of 1976 Wednesday, 6 October 1976
Coup (attempt) of 1977 Saturday, 26 March 1977
Coup of 1977 Thursday, 20 October 1977
Coup (attempt) of 1981 (“Young Turks”) Wednesday, 1 April 1981
Coup (attempt) of 1985 Monday, 9 September 1985
Coup of 1991 Saturday, 23 February 1991
Coup of 2006 Tuesday, 19 September 2006

Source: Counting Thailand’s coups

I also pointed out that the real problem is that many Thais have discovered the Achilles heel of all democracies (“When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic“) because poor rural and Northern Thais have found that voting for Thaksin (and his proxies) is the equivalent of voting themselves money in the form of rice subsidies and other handouts – just like in the West.

To read the whole article, Thai investors have learned to sell on the protests, buy on the coup, go to the website of QUARTZ.

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