The Swiss franc has surged with some commentators saying that’s bad news for Poland’s mortgage borrowers who have loans either denominated in Swiss francs or indexed to it. In fact, 46% of total home loans in Poland are tied to the Swiss franc but the FT Alphaville blog points out that 46% of a small amount is a small amount as there are about 131 billion zlotys worth of CHF mortgages in Poland as of the end of November, but the country’s GDP as of the middle of 2014 (annualized) was about 1.65 trillion zlotys. Moreover, the cumulative change in monthly payments is worth less than 0.2 per cent of Polish GDP plus there is a boost coming from lower commodity prices – meaning everything could be a wash.
So what is the real long term problem for Poland? A birthrate that is lower than Japan’s combined with sizable net emigration.
To read the whole article, Stop worrying about Swiss franc mortgages in Poland, go to the website of the Financial Times. In addition, check out our list of Poland ADRs here.
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