Don’t Worry About Swiss Franc Mortgages in Poland? (FT)
The Swiss franc has surged with some commentators saying that’s bad news for Poland’s mortgage borrowers who have loans either denominated in Swiss francs or indexed to it. In fact, 46% of total home loans in Poland are tied to the Swiss franc but the FT Alphaville blog points out that 46% of a small amount is a small amount as there are about 131 billion zlotys worth of CHF mortgages in Poland as of the end of November, but the country’s GDP as of the middle of 2014 (annualized) was about 1.65 trillion zlotys. Moreover, the cumulative change in monthly payments is worth less than 0.2 per cent of Polish GDP plus there is a boost coming from lower commodity prices – meaning everything could be a wash.
So what is the real long term problem for Poland? A birthrate that is lower than Japan’s combined with sizable net emigration.
To read the whole article, Stop worrying about Swiss franc mortgages in Poland, go to the website of the Financial Times. In addition, check out our list of Poland ADRs here.
- Statistics on Swiss Franc Exposure in Central/Eastern Europe Lending (Reuters)
- Five Interesting Trends in Poland’s Economy for Investors (Mobius Blog)
- Henderson’s Bennett: “No Real Emerging Europe, We Have Got Submerging Europe” (Citywire)
- Fortune Magazine’s Best Emerging Markets to Invest in Now
- Poland: The Next Economic Powerhouse? (NYT)
- Russia Troubles Hit Emerging Markets – Including Emerging Europe (Barron’s)
- Hungary, Poland, Mexico and South Korea Poised to Handle a Pull Back in US Monetary Stimulus (WealthManagement.com)
- Emerging Market Risk Ranking: Most Vulnerable to the Strongest (FT)
- How ECB QE Could Impact Emerging Markets (FT)
- Which Emerging Markets Have the Most Leveraged Stocks? (Bloomberg)