Frontier Markets Are a Backdoor Oil Trade (CNBC)
Neil Azous of Rareview Macro and Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray recently appeared on CNBC’s Trading Nation to discuss if there were any frontier market investment opportunities worth considering right now. It was first noted that the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (NYSEARCA: FM) (check out out frontier market ETF list here) has under-performed both the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) since the start of the year.
Azous then pointed out that if you have a 6 to 10 year time horizon like a private equity fund, then some of these frontier markets can be wonderful investment opportunities. However, the reason frontier markets have pulled back so much recently is that they are a back door trade associated with crude oil. If crude oil stabilizes or rises, these frontier markets should perform well in the short term (which, for frontier markets, is 18 months).
Johnson also thinks there are opportunities for relief rallies based on what happens with oil as some frontier markets in the Middle East are already down as much as 30%. He thinks frontier markets are more of a trade rather than a long term investment.
- How the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Changes Will Impact Investors (P&I)
- How MSCI’s Removal of Qatar & UAE Impacts the Frontier Markets Landscape (MM)
- Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul Stock Market and Foreign Investment (AFC)
- Frontier Markets: Small, Concentrated & Misunderstood (Financial Advisor)
- Fund Managers’ Opinions on the UAE and Qatar’s Emerging Markets Upgrade (The National)
- How Canaccord Genuity’s Oliver is Hedging for Iraq & Ukraine Turmoil (FE Trustnet)
- ING IM’s Ruijer: China and the Fed are the Biggest Risks to Frontier Markets (Citywire)
- History Says Investors Get Gored by MSCI Upgrades (Reuters)
- Meet the Emerging Market Fund Manager Who Is the Antithesis of Mark Mobius (NYT)
- Frontier Market ETFs Have 72% Exposure to Oil-Dependent Countries (FT Adviser)