Note: “Preparing for war” might be an extreme take, but there were other good China insights in the podcast.
- [Kyle] Bass, founder of the asset management firm Hayman Capital and prominent China hawk, claimed the Chinese are in a financial conundrum of their own making. “They have architectural problems,” the fund manager said in a Dec. 17 interview on the podcast Forward Guidance.
- Blaming the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) incentives and monetary policies for creating an environment of “riverboat gambling in their property sector,” Bass warned of real estate’s burgeoning share of Chinese GDP. Estimates of the property market’s share in the nation’s economy vary, but economist and Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff estimated it to be around 30 percent, as of September 2021.
Forward Guidance podcast timestamps:
- 00:00 Intro
- 01:06 Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook
- 04:20 Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices?
- 13:10 China’s Economy
- 23:00 The Chinese Communist Party
- 28:46 Why Won’t Beijing Reflate?
- 43:57 Russia and Putin
- 48:42 Uranium and the Fed
- 52:19 Outlook on Bonds in 2023
- China Is Preparing To Go To War (19fortyfive.com)
- The Chinese Property Market: The Most Important Industry Globally Which Few Understand (Platinum Asset Management)
- Xi’s Removal of Hu Points to ‘Common Prosperity,’ not Taiwan Invasion (Asia Nikkei)
- Morningstar Hong Kong & Singapore Stock of the Week (Q3 2023)
- Korea & Taiwan Use Renminbi for Majority of Payments with China & Hong Kong (The Asset)
- Emerging Market Stock Pick Tear Sheets (July 1-15, 2023)
- ABN Amro Likes China, Taiwan and Thailand Equities (Bloomberg)
- Podcast: A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in China (KraneShares)
- As US-China Relations Worsen, Expect Supply Chain Chaos (Freight Waves)
- CLSA Feng Shui Index 2016 Predictions
- Which Countries Are Most Influenced By China? (Oilprice.com)
- No Improvement in Asia Pacific Corporate Payments in 2015 (Coface)
- Will Donald Trump’s Trade Crusade Ultimately Benefit Southeast Asia? (SCMP)
- Digging Deeper: China vs. Taiwan Conflict Links & Resources (August 2022)
- A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Could Unleash An Economic Disaster (1945)