Jim O’Neill, a Bloomberg View columnist who was the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and the firm’s chief economist from 2001 to 2011, says that in the most recent round of emerging market economic conferences, he has often found himself at odds with other analysts. He also says he had to keep making the same following points repeatedly (Note: His column goes into more detail about each of these points – making it well worth reading):
- The emerging economies are more different from one another than they are alike.
- The mood of the markets is sometimes good for a laugh, but not much else.
- The idea that the developed world is back while the emerging-market economies are in trouble doesn’t add up.
- Let’s stop talking down China’s economic strength.
- Relatedly, the global economy is doing better than many suppose.
- Much of China’s slowdown is deliberate, part of an effort by China’s government to shape a more sustainable and balanced economy.
- China’s slowdown will help some and hurt others.
- Don’t confuse doing the right thing with being lucky.
- Be careful with labels like “fragile five.” The term was coined for Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey.
- Always look to these factors: market valuation; cyclical prospects; structural barriers and opportunities; and the outlook for policy above all.
To read the whole column, A Ten-Step Program for Understanding Emerging Markets, go to the website of Bloomberg View.
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